← EFL League Two 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G Salisbury
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Carlisle win | 43% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Dag and Red win | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.59 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.