← EFL League Two 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Lewis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Luton win | 45% | 35% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.52 | value: +19% |
| Exeter win | 27% | 32% | 3.58 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 1 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.