← EFL League Two 2014-15 · Tue, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P Miller
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Oxford win | 56% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.69 | fair |
| Hartlepool win | 17% | 19% | 5.58 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.