← Premier League 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P Walton
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 52% | 63% | 1.83 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.50 | fair |
| West Ham win | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.