← EFL League Two 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Haines
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Scunthorpe win | 44% | 35% | 2.23 | fair |
| Bury win | 28% | 31% | 3.43 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.49 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.