← EFL League Two 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S Bratt
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Newport County win | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 23% | 27% | 4.15 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.