← EFL League Two 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J Simpson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 39% | 32% | 2.52 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 32% | 38% | 3.06 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.