← EFL League Two 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P Crossley
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Wycombe win | 55% | 45% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.75 | value: +36% |
| Northampton win | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.