Toronto Blue Jays v Detroit Tigers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 14, 11:07 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Troy Melton (ERA 2.42, WHIP 1.05) · home: José Soriano (ERA 3.48, WHIP 1.28)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	54%	1.79
Detroit Tigers win	46%	2.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Detroit Tigers win		2.01	1.99	-1.0%
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.73	1.76	+1.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.