San Francisco Giants 4–6 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 11:20 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Nick Pivetta (ERA 3.43, WHIP 0.95) · home: Logan Webb (ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.15)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
San Diego Padres win	56%	1.78
San Francisco Giants win	44%	13.41

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		1.73	1.06	-38.8%
San Francisco Giants win		2.09	13.41	+540.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Diego Padres	2	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	6
San Francisco Giants	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Francisco Giants	San Diego Padres
congestion 21d	19.00	17.00
elo	1464.47	1537.19
elo momentum (last 5)	1.33	10.47
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	1.14	1.14
runs against avg (last 10)	5.30	4.00
runs for avg (last 10)	4.90	4.50