Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 06:20 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.25, WHIP 1.34) · home: Matthew Boyd (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.22)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago Cubs win	54%	1.83
Pittsburgh Pirates win	46%	2.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.97	2.14	+8.6%
Chicago Cubs win		1.69	1.70	+0.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.