Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:35 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Painter (ERA 5.71, WHIP 1.41) · home: Grant Holmes (ERA 3.46, WHIP 1.29)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	52%	1.83
Philadelphia Phillies win	48%	1.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.86	1.93	+3.9%
Atlanta Braves win		1.76	1.83	+3.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.