Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:35 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Noah Cameron (ERA 3.93, WHIP 1.2) · home: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.15, WHIP 1.08)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boston Red Sox win	59%	1.65
Kansas City Royals win	41%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		2.29	2.29	0.0%
Boston Red Sox win		1.62	1.65	+1.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.