Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 11:15 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 2.87, WHIP 1.08) · home: Tyler Mahle (ERA 4.05, WHIP 1.27)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	52%	1.90
Atlanta Braves win	48%	2.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.73	1.76	+1.7%
Atlanta Braves win		1.93	2.09	+8.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.