New York Yankees v New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 05:35 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Zac Thornton (ERA 3.53, WHIP 1.19) · home: Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.09)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	61%	1.60
New York Mets win	39%	2.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Mets win		2.46	2.52	+2.6%
New York Yankees win		1.44	1.55	+7.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.