Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 08:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Randy Dobnak (ERA 2.54, WHIP 1.32) · home: Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.44, WHIP 1.22)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boston Red Sox win	62%	1.55
Kansas City Royals win	38%	2.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		2.46	2.52	+2.6%
Boston Red Sox win		1.44	1.52	+6.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.