Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 10:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.67, WHIP 1.23) · home: Ian Seymour (ERA 4.33, WHIP 1.16)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	57%	1.70
Houston Astros win	43%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Houston Astros win		2.19	2.24	+2.3%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.52	1.67	+9.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.