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Minnesota Twins 2–5 Cleveland Guardians

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 12:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Parker Messick (ERA 2.53, WHIP 1.04) · home: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.95, WHIP 1.26)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cleveland Guardians win51%1.97
Minnesota Twins win49%2.59

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Cleveland Guardians win1.861.52-18.1%
Minnesota Twins win1.792.59+44.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Cleveland Guardians0000002035
Minnesota Twins0100001002