Seattle Mariners 4–3 Texas Rangers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 10, 08:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jacob deGrom (ERA 3.96, WHIP 1.12) · home: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.07)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Seattle Mariners win	54%	1.90
Texas Rangers win	46%	2.15

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Texas Rangers win		2.14	2.10	-2.0%
Seattle Mariners win		1.57	1.76	+12.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Texas Rangers	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
Seattle Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	—	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Seattle Mariners	Texas Rangers
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1476.15	1483.30
elo momentum (last 5)	-7.71	0.37
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	4.60
runs for avg (last 10)	4.70	6.00