Miami Marlins 14–15 New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 10:40 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Miami Marlins win	51%	13.41
New York Mets win	49%	2.09

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Mets win		1.83	1.05	-42.6%
Miami Marlins win		1.83	13.41	+634.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
New York Mets	0	6	2	0	0	0	6	1	0	15
Miami Marlins	0	0	0	3	0	5	1	2	3	14

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Miami Marlins	New York Mets
congestion 21d	18.00	17.00
elo	1485.48	1499.13
elo momentum (last 5)	-8.34	8.79
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	5.50	4.60
runs for avg (last 10)	5.20	5.90