Philadelphia Phillies 11–7 Houston Astros

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 10:40 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	59%	1.65
Houston Astros win	41%	2.40

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Houston Astros win		2.34	2.34	0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.57	1.62	+3.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Houston Astros	0	0	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	7
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	4	0	1	6	0	0	—	11

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros
congestion 21d	17.00	19.00
elo	1556.95	1508.71
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.44	4.28
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	2.50	3.20
runs for avg (last 10)	3.40	3.70