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Seattle Mariners 5–10 Texas Rangers

← Major League Baseball 2026 Β· Wed, Sep 9, 01:40 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seattle Mariners win54%34.00
Texas Rangers win46%2.40

across 10 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement β€” Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Texas Rangers win1.992.34+17.6%
Seattle Mariners win1.731.65-4.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Texas Rangers11025010010
Seattle Mariners0003000115

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSeattle MarinersTexas Rangers
congestion 21d18.0018.00
elo1478.661480.79
elo momentum (last 5)-4.67-3.64
matches since win0.000.00
rest days2.232.30
runs against avg (last 10)5.704.90
runs for avg (last 10)4.305.20