San Francisco Giants 2–1 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 01:45 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	51%	2.40
San Francisco Giants win	49%	2.09

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.76	1.81	+2.4%
San Francisco Giants win		1.93	2.05	+6.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
San Francisco Giants	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Francisco Giants	St. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d	20.00	18.00
elo	1465.13	1493.33
elo momentum (last 5)	-2.04	-3.58
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.07	1.07
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	5.80
runs for avg (last 10)	5.60	6.10