Houston Astros 3–4 Arizona Diamondbacks

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 11:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Brandon Pfaadt (ERA 3.49, WHIP 1.14) · home: Ethan Pecko (ERA 6.23, WHIP 1.54)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Houston Astros win	51%	1.93
Arizona Diamondbacks win	49%	2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Arizona Diamondbacks win		1.93	2.05	+6.2%
Houston Astros win		1.79	1.79	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
Arizona Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	4
Houston Astros	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Houston Astros	Arizona Diamondbacks
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1510.57	1512.29
elo momentum (last 5)	7.92	-11.18
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.96	0.96
runs against avg (last 10)	3.10	3.60
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	3.10