Houston Astros 6–3 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 12:10 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Houston Astros win	54%	1.83
Chicago White Sox win	46%	15.64

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		1.97	15.64	+693.6%
Houston Astros win		1.83	1.05	-42.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago White Sox	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	3
Houston Astros	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Houston Astros	Chicago White Sox
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1502.64	1506.56
elo momentum (last 5)	5.08	8.14
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.21	1.25
runs against avg (last 10)	5.60	5.00
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	4.70