← EFL Championship 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O Langford
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stoke win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Swansea win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.