Fylde 2–2 Wealdstone

← EFL League Two 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J Robinson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Fylde win	48%	1.91
Wealdstone win	27%	3.40
Draw	25%	3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Wealdstone −0.5	51%	1.85
Fylde −0.5	49%	1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	56%	1.67
Under	44%	2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0	Half-time score	0
15	Shots	10
10	On target	5
5	Corners	5
8	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Fylde	Wealdstone
congestion 21d	1.00	1.00
elo	1498.29	1501.71
matches since blank	1.00	1.00
matches since clean sheet	1.00	1.00
matches since win	1.00	1.00
rest days	0.00	0.00
state index	-0.04	-0.03