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Eastleigh 2–1 Gateshead

← EFL League Two 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S Mulhall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eastleigh win42%2.15
Gateshead win32%2.88
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gateshead −0.2551%1.85
Eastleigh −0.2549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.62
Under42%2.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots11
4On target6
5Corners8
9Fouls11
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEastleighGateshead
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1508.291491.71
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days0.000.00
state index0.09-0.07