Boreham Wood 3–3 Tamworth

← EFL League Two 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Jackson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boreham Wood win	60%	1.53
Draw	22%	4.10
Tamworth win	18%	5.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boreham Wood −1	51%	1.88
Tamworth −1	49%	1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	61%	1.53
Under	39%	2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1	Half-time score	1
15	Shots	8
9	On target	6
10	Corners	2
4	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Boreham Wood	Tamworth
congestion 21d	1.00	1.00
elo	1498.29	1501.71
matches since blank	1.00	1.00
matches since clean sheet	1.00	1.00
matches since win	1.00	1.00
rest days	0.00	0.00
state index	-0.04	-0.03