Hornchurch 3–0 Kidderminster

← Premier League 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Bourne

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Hornchurch win	46%	2.00
Kidderminster win	28%	3.25
Draw	26%	3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Hornchurch −0.25	53%	1.78
Kidderminster −0.25	47%	2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	54%	1.75
Under	46%	2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3	Half-time score	0
15	Shots	5
8	On target	1
4	Corners	3
10	Fouls	6
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Hornchurch	Kidderminster
congestion 21d	0.00	0.00
elo	1500.00	1500.00
state index	-0.03	-0.03