Fylde 2–2 Wealdstone

← Premier League 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J Robinson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Fylde win	48%	1.91
Wealdstone win	27%	3.40
Draw	25%	3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Wealdstone −0.5	51%	1.85
Fylde −0.5	49%	1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	56%	1.67
Under	44%	2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0	Half-time score	0
15	Shots	10
10	On target	5
5	Corners	5
8	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Fylde	Wealdstone
congestion 21d	0.00	0.00
elo	1500.00	1500.00
state index	-0.03	-0.03