Eastleigh 2–1 Gateshead

← Premier League 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S Mulhall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Eastleigh win	42%	2.15
Gateshead win	32%	2.88
Draw	26%	3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Gateshead −0.25	51%	1.85
Eastleigh −0.25	49%	1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	58%	1.62
Under	42%	2.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1	Half-time score	0
8	Shots	11
4	On target	6
5	Corners	8
9	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Eastleigh	Gateshead
congestion 21d	0.00	0.00
elo	1500.00	1500.00
state index	-0.03	-0.03