← Premier League 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Watkins
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boston Utd win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 3.90 |
| Aldershot win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boston Utd −0.75 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Aldershot −0.75 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.