← EFL League Two 2009-10 · Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K Evans
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rotherham win | 40% | 47% | 2.38 | value: +12% |
| Northampton win | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.