The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Anderlecht win
53%
1.80
Draw
26%
3.74
RAAL La Louviere win
21%
4.65
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Anderlecht −0.75
53%
1.80
RAAL La Louviere −0.75
47%
2.00
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
53%
1.86
Over
47%
2.14
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
51%
1.88
Yes
49%
1.98
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
RAAL La Louviere win
4.35
4.60
+5.7%
Draw
3.55
3.60
+1.4%
Anderlecht win
1.74
1.67
-4.3%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
0
Half-time score
0
32
Shots
5
7
On target
2
10
Corners
1
12
Fouls
12
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.