⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hapoel Tel Aviv v GKS Katowice

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hapoel Tel Aviv win44%2.24
GKS Katowice win28%3.60
Draw28%3.64

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.98
Over49%1.98

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes54%1.80
No46%2.08

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.552%1.81
Under 9.548%2.02

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
GKS Katowice win3.533.25-8.1%
Draw3.513.30-6.0%
Hapoel Tel Aviv win1.992.11+6.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDVTK Stadion