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AFC Ajax v Shelbourne

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoglan · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AFC Ajax win85%1.20
Draw10%16.00
Shelbourne win5%41.99

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over72%1.34
Under28%3.90

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No57%1.93
Yes43%2.50

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 10.554%1.75
Over 10.546%2.02

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 2.558%1.62
Under 2.542%2.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Shelbourne win13.6324.00+76.1%
Draw6.4510.25+58.9%
AFC Ajax win1.191.06-10.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohan Cruijff Arena