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Beitar Jerusalem v Austria Vienna

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Visser · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beitar Jerusalem win41%2.43
Austria Vienna win31%4.60
Draw28%3.65

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.00

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.83
No47%2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 8.553%1.78
Under 8.547%2.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Austria Vienna win4.602.90-37.0%
Draw3.653.30-9.6%
Beitar Jerusalem win1.722.30+33.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTeddy Stadium