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Riga v Gyori ETO FC

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Leibovitz · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Riga win44%2.57
Gyori ETO FC win28%3.50
Draw28%3.50

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.00

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.80
No47%2.02

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.554%1.75
Over 9.546%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Gyori ETO FC win2.653.30+24.5%
Draw3.253.35+3.1%
Riga win2.572.07-19.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSkonto stadions