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Raków Częstochowa v Hammarby FF

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Nalbandyan · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Raków Częstochowa win42%2.38
Hammarby FF win30%3.29
Draw28%3.56

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%2.00

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes56%1.73
No44%2.13

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.553%1.80
Over 9.547%2.02

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Hammarby FF win3.212.98-7.5%
Draw3.473.30-4.9%
Raków Częstochowa win2.122.25+6.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMiejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow