Debreceni VSC v FC Copenhagen

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Jorgji · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
FC Copenhagen win	53%	1.87
Draw	26%	3.87
Debreceni VSC win	21%	4.86

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	52%	1.98
Under	48%	2.05

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	53%	1.81
No	47%	2.05

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 8.5	53%	1.76
Under 8.5	47%	2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 4.5	54%	1.75
Over 4.5	46%	2.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
FC Copenhagen win	1.81	1.72	-5.0%
Draw	3.49	3.63	+3.9%
Debreceni VSC win	4.28	4.37	+2.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Nagyerdei Stadion