Flora Tallinn v Inter Club d'Escaldes

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Ebner · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Flora Tallinn win	47%	2.30
Draw	27%	3.62
Inter Club d'Escaldes win	26%	3.88

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	53%	1.92
Under	47%	2.13

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	56%	1.73
No	44%	2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 9.5	51%	1.90
Over 9.5	49%	1.98

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Inter Club d'Escaldes win	2.95	3.65	+23.7%
Draw	3.40	3.50	+2.9%
Flora Tallinn win	2.30	1.90	-17.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Estadi de la FAF