FK Zalgiris Vilnius v HNK Hajduk Split

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
HNK Hajduk Split win	49%	1.97
Draw	26%	3.70
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win	25%	4.25

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	54%	1.81
Under	46%	2.15

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	56%	1.73
No	44%	2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 9.5	51%	1.92
Under 9.5	49%	1.93

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
HNK Hajduk Split win	1.78	1.89	+6.2%
Draw	3.65	3.54	-3.0%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win	4.25	3.70	-12.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

LFF stadionas