Dynamo Kyiv v Qarabağ Ağdam FK

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Krogh · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Dynamo Kyiv win	44%	2.24
Qarabağ Ağdam FK win	28%	4.30
Draw	27%	3.75

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	52%	1.86
Under	48%	2.05

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	56%	1.70
No	44%	2.13

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 9.5	51%	1.87
Over 9.5	49%	2.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Qarabağ Ağdam FK win	4.30	3.15	-26.7%
Draw	3.75	3.40	-9.3%
Dynamo Kyiv win	1.75	2.10	+20.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Motor Lublin Arena