Sheriff Tiraspol v FC ST. Gallen

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Ladeback · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
FC ST. Gallen win	48%	1.95
Draw	26%	3.75
Sheriff Tiraspol win	26%	3.90

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	57%	1.70
Under	43%	2.30

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	60%	1.62
No	40%	2.40

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 9.5	51%	1.97
Over 9.5	49%	2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
FC ST. Gallen win	1.95	1.91	-2.1%
Draw	3.65	3.55	-2.7%
Sheriff Tiraspol win	3.55	3.60	+1.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Sheriff Arena