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IFK Goteborg v Gent

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bandic · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win40%2.77
IFK Goteborg win32%3.25
Draw28%3.45

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%2.10
Over50%1.95

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes55%1.80
No45%2.25

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 10.550%1.87
Over 10.550%1.90

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 3.551%1.82
Under 3.549%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Gent win2.772.25-18.8%
Draw3.453.30-4.3%
IFK Goteborg win2.372.95+24.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGamla Ullevi