CFR 1907 Cluj v Tromso

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Kolaric · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tromso win	37%	2.71
CFR 1907 Cluj win	35%	2.84
Draw	29%	3.36

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under	54%	1.80
Over	46%	2.11

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	52%	1.83
No	48%	1.96

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 8.5	54%	1.76
Under 8.5	46%	2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 3.5	57%	1.65
Over 3.5	43%	2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Tromso win	2.66	2.48	-6.8%
Draw	3.24	3.25	+0.5%
CFR 1907 Cluj win	2.60	2.69	+3.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.