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FC Noah v FC Sion

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. De Gabriele · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Sion win39%2.62
FC Noah win33%3.00
Draw27%3.50

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.88
Under46%2.15

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes58%1.67
No42%2.27

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.554%1.70
Over 9.546%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
FC Sion win2.622.35-10.3%
Draw3.303.38+2.4%
FC Noah win2.602.76+6.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAbovyan City Stadium