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Paide v Rapid Vienna

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Nikolic · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rapid Vienna win76%1.55
Draw16%6.62
Paide win9%14.00

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.62
Under38%2.55

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No54%2.05
Yes46%2.20

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.552%1.82
Under 9.548%2.02

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Rapid Vienna win1.551.20-22.6%
Draw4.306.00+39.5%
Paide win5.3012.00+126.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueA. Le Coq Arena