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FK Jablonec v Rīgas FS

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FK Jablonec win57%1.77
Draw25%4.30
Rīgas FS win18%6.73

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%2.04
Over49%2.02

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No51%1.85
Yes49%1.91

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.550%1.90
Over 9.550%1.90

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.554%1.75
Over 4.546%2.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Rīgas FS win6.454.75-26.4%
Draw4.183.61-13.5%
FK Jablonec win1.481.67+12.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion Strelnice